Friday, May 10, 2019

The Dreaded Vaccination Post



Okay.  This is the first post I have added in many years.  I didn't think I would be posting any time soon, but we as a society are inundated with news revolving around the measles outbreaks that are occurring in the world today, and as a result many states are pushing more and more legislations to mandate vaccinations.

Heads up...if you haven't figured it out by now, this post will be controversial...  

I am going to try to present my reasoning for why I have chosen my path regarding vaccines.  I will quickly state that I am attempting to do so without contempt for the choices that anyone else has made, and I believe the decision of anyone, whether it is the same as mine or not, can be completely justified.  My purpose in writing this is to illustrate the thought process that went into my decision not to give my family a measles vaccination, regardless of the outbreaks that are currently occurring.  My sources in presenting this argument will mostly come from the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) and the WHO (World Health Organization).  I hope that staying within this realm will limit the argument of whether my sources are legitimate, as they are widely considered reputable among the pro-mandatory vaccine community.

When you think of measles, what comes to mind?  Google the word measles and read the news articles being published.  All the news articles use words like "hotbeds for disease." and "putting other people in danger unnecessarily" (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/09/nyregion/measles-outbreak-ny-schools.html)

These articles and phrases are the media's way of grasping viewer's attention.  Throughout media history, fear-based reporting has always been the best way to secure viewership and make sure they thrive as a company.  While there is truth in what they are saying, it's really only half the story.  Here's the other half:

According to the CDC, in the decade prior to 1963 (when the measles vaccine was created), there were about 4 million cases of measles in the US each year.  Of those 4 million cases, 48,000 people were hospitalized, 1000 of those cases developed encephalitis (swelling in the brain.  In most cases, encephalitis is minor, and resolves itself in a few days, however, it can be serious enough to cause lasting brain damage and death) and 400 of the 4 million resulted in death. (https://www.cdc.gov/measles/cases-outbreaks.html).  All of those statistics look terrifying, but they don't have to.  Simple statistics tells us that in the decade prior to 1963 only .01 percent of the population that contracted measles died.  Encephalitis rate was .025 percent, and hospitalization rate was at 1.2 percent.  Meaning, if you contracted measles, all other factors aside, you had a 99.99% chance of surviving, a 99.97 percent chance of not developing encephalitis (which, in most cases was minor and resolved itself in a few days) and a 98.8 percent chance of not even needing to visit the hospital.  Please do not consider these statistics to be insensitive.  None of these statistics take away from the tragedy that 400 people died.  They do, however, lay a groundwork for why I am not afraid of the measles.

Let's leap to 2019.  Up to April 26th, there has been a reported 704 measles cases reported in the U.S., more cases than there have been since 1994.  If the statistics we took from pre-vaccination era measles held true, that would mean that there should be 8 hospitalizations, and no cases of encephalitis or death.  Fortunately there have been no cases of encephalitis or death yet, however, there have been 66 hospitalizations from these outbreaks (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/68/wr/mm6817e1.htm).  66! That rate is almost nine times higher compared to traditional pre-vaccine statistics in the 1960's.  So what is causing this explosion of hospitalization rates?

According to the CDC and WHO, the people that are most at risk for a severe case of measles are children under 5 years old, adults over 20 years old, and pregnant women.  Also, anyone with an already compromised or weakened immune system can be at risk (https://www.cdc.gov/measles/hcp/index.html).  Once you contract the measles, if you are one of the lucky 99.99% that survives, you will be immune to it for life.  In addition, women who have this immunity from contracting the disease can offer "passive immunity" through their breastmilk if they choose to breastfeed their baby (https://www.healthline.com/health/measles).  There are also studies that show that breastmilk, while not offering total immunity, can strengthen a child's immune system for life, and prolonged breastfeeding beyond six months has a greater impact (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9892025).

Here's the catch.  Thanks to vaccines, adults and mothers in our generation never had measles, never developed an immunity to it, and therefore could never offer passive immunity to their newborn children.  The result:  Greater susceptibility to developing measles under age 5 when it will be the most severe, and greater susceptibility to developing measles as an adult over 20 or pregnant due to not contracting it earlier in life.

Thus,

...When an outbreak like the one we are experiencing now occurs, the people who are most at risk for severe cases of measles are much more vulnerable... 

and our hospitalization rate is nine times higher than it should be.

It is clear, very clear, that vaccines are the most effective answer for preventing measles.  There's NO question about that.

My question for you to consider is this:  Are vaccines the most sustainable answer?  

With hospitalization rates skyrocketing the way they are, and the age groups referenced being vulnerable due to circumstances created by vaccines, ask yourself this question; if a collapse in the private sector stopped the manufacture of the measles vaccine, or a terrorist attack, or a natural disaster stopped the population from having access to vaccines, what do you think would happen?  According to the statistics we've seen this year, if 4 million people were to contract measles instead of 704, statistically speaking, one could argue that up to 360,000 people would be hospitalized instead of 48,000.

The alternative:
So what do we do?  We are kinda stuck aren't we?  Anyone who chooses not to vaccinate is exposing themselves and the community to potentially contracting measles, regardless of their philosophical viewpoint that perhaps this isn't a sustainable way to combat the disease.  While I can't offer a major earth shattering, revelatory change you can make, I can offer something simple that can help.  There have been several studies conducted that show if you are high in levels of vitamin A or receive a proper vitamin A dosage after contracting measles, your morbitity and mortality rates can be reduced by up to 84% (depending on age) (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11869601) (https://www.cdc.gov/measles/hcp/index.html).  This means that with the proper administration of vitamin A, that group of 400 people out of 4 million that died in 1963 would be reduced to as low as 4 people.  Two other ways of looking at it:  With this proper management of measles, if you are one of the 4 million people who contracted measles, and you get the proper vitamin A treatment, you may have a .0001 percent chance of dying, or a 99.9999% chance of surviving.

In Conclusion:
I understand that these numbers are oversimplified.  There are deeper dives that need to be taken with all of this.  My issue is that instead of looking at measles from the standpoint of seeing how we can combat this without the use of vaccines, everyone is only pushing more vaccines.  The vaccine industry is a 6 billion dollar industry.  Until someone can figure out how to make 6 billion dollars by giving people vitamin A and a good diet, change is going to be hard to come by.  Ghandi told us that we need "to be the change you want to see in the world."  That is why my family and I have chosen, despite ridicule from family, friends, and the public, to seek after more sustainable ways of fighting against diseases  like the measles.  I do not claim to be a professional on this subject.  I am just a dad that wants what's best for his kids.

I do not believe I have the authority to tell someone what decision they should make, but I also believe that NO ONE else does either.  

Every individual should choose for themselves what they want to do.  Every individual should have the right to objectively study these things out for themselves and make a choice without worrying about persecution that may occur based on the choice they made.  Our country is founded on these principles of freedom.  I have researched it for myself and have made a choice.  As I said in the beginning, I can see the justification behind the choices others have made that are not the same as mine.

Regardless of what your choice is, there is no room for unkindness or contempt for the choices anyone makes. 

 If nothing else, I hope this post has illustrated my thought process behind why I choose not to vaccinate for measles, and perhaps can at least illuminate that maybe people who have chosen not to vaccinate are doing so because they are trying to make an educated decision.



DISCLAIMER:  I am happy to receive any comments or opinions that are centered in kindness regardless of whether they are aligned with my own.  As a rule, any unkind or contemptuous comment will be deleted and the person making it will be blocked. 



1 comment:

  1. Hey Jacob, I appreciate the research you've put into this. I also appreciated your dispassionate presentation of evidence without the emotional arguments. Your argument rests on a couple of points that are not supported by evidence. Your argument doesn't provide evidence showing that vulnerable populations are more vulnerable today. The data on hospitalization rates and passive immunity are not sufficient to make that conclusion (if that's what you meant). Also, I don't know exactly what you mean by sustainable, but vaccines are more cost-effective than treating measles.
    I think you concluded that an increase in the rate of hospitalization meant that people today are more susceptible to the measles or have a more severe reaction to it. This is jumping to conclusions. It is more likely that increased hospitalization rates reflect increased access to medical care and/or changing standards of care.
    Passive immunity, maternal antibodies against measles present in the breast milk, is not long-lasting in infants of measles-exposed or vaccinated mothers. It is lower and shorter in infants of vaccinated mothers, but within months of ceasing breast feeding, infants in both cases would likely have no passive immunity. (Leuridan et al, 2010) The study you mention doesn't show that breast feeding yields durable immunity to measles beyond what's expected for passive immunity.
    Vaccines do give you immunity and although it may wane that immunity is present in breast milk of vaccinated mothers although at lower levels than measles-exposed mothers. So, the following sentence is a misrepresentation and in some ways is false: "Here's the catch. Thanks to vaccines, adults and mothers in our generation never had measles, never developed an immunity to it, and therefore could never offer passive immunity to their newborn children."
    Also, what do you mean by sustainable? A comparison of resource consumption between vaccination and hospitalization would very likely favor vaccination. Do you mean more cost-effective? That is usually measured in something like dollars/quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) or something like that. For example, Zwanziger et al. (2001) found "averting a single case of measles, using "base case" assumptions, yields societal cost savings of $2089 and an increase of 0.086 QALYs in health benefits." Vaccination is more cost-effective than treating measles.
    Also, vaccination is a societal/public health initiative and while it is an individual decision to vaccinate, it has to be approached at a population level. "What if nobody vaccinated?" or "what if the vaccination drops to X?" are the key questions. Cost-effectiveness increases as vaccination rates go up and measles is eradicated.
    You insinuated that vaccines are common and standard because they are profittable. That is simply not true. Vaccines is the standard of care because they are effective.
    The fact that vaccines are created by industry is irrelevant. The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccines remains. Also, as a rule, the profit margin for vaccines is very slim. If not created for profit who would create vaccines? The government or some non-profit? (https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/02/vaccines-are-profitable-so-what/385214/)
    Also, the review your referenced on vitament A only found a significant effect in treatment of children under two.
    Leuridan, E., Hens, N., Hutse, V., Ieven, M., Aerts, M., & Van Damme, P. (2010). Early waning of maternal measles antibodies in era of measles elimination: longitudinal study. Bmj, 340, c1626.
    Zwanziger, J., Szilagyi, P. G., & Kaul, P. (2001). Evaluating the benefits of increasing measles immunization rates. Health services research, 36(5), 885.

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